Economic survey of the Caribbean 2003-2004

This survey examines the macroeconomic performance of Caribbean countries for 2003 and what the data availability allows for 2004. The analysis in this publication refers, as in past years, to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) economies and also, for the first time, to the majority of the Non-Independent Caribbean Countries (NICCs) that are members of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC).

The survey shows that Caribbean economies have, in general, exhibited a process of economic recovery. In 2003, Caribbean countries improved their performance registering on average 2.8% GDP growth compared with the 1.0% recorded in 2002. There are nonetheless significant disparities in GDP growth among countries. At the lower end of the spectrum, Guyana and the British Virgin Islands registered economic downturns (-0.6% and -1.9%). At the higher end, Antigua and Barbuda and Suriname doubled their growth rates in 2003 in comparison with the previous year. However, the overall growth divergence narrowed.

The survey is divided into four sections. The first presents a regional economic overview which briefly compares the performance of Caribbean countries relative to that of Latin America and then focuses on the particularities of macroeconomic performance for 2003 for the Caribbean region in the aggregate. The section also includes a preliminary projection for 2004.

Since tourism provided the impetus for the recovery of 2003, the second section analyses the nature of the recovery and the strategies being pursued to increase tourism's contribution to economic growth. Given the recent attention placed on the state of indebtedness of Caribbean economies as an obstacle to long-run growth, this section also examines the question of public debt.

The third section, and by far the most comprehensive, describes the macroeconomic evolution of CARICOM and the NICCs (Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, British Virgin Islands and the United States Virgin Islands) for 2003, with some preliminary estimates for 2004. For institutional reasons the analysis of two of the NICCs, Anguilla and Montserrat, is presented with that of the OECS. Where data availability permits, a table with the main macroeconomic indicators is included in the analysis of each country.

The final section is a statistical annex. It consists of a series of statistical tables, mainly for CARICOM economies, that include the distribution of GDP by sector of economic activity (in levels and rates of growth); real sector indicators; the fiscal accounts of the central government; a monetary survey; the balance of payments according to the methodology of the 5th Manual of the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and external sector indicators. This last set includes the external debt, exports (usually classified by traditional and non traditional); imports (usually classified by economic category) and, when relevant, tourism indicators.