An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Guyana

An augmented production function is used in the present study to model the effects of climate change on agricultural output, in order to determine the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector in Guyana. The analysis controls for price effects and typical agricultural inputs. Separate models are estimated for sugarcane, rice and fisheries. Three scenarios are employed to forecast the impact of climate change up to 2050: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 and B2 climate scenarios. The loss/gain in production under climate change is then computed by comparing the production under the BAU scenario with the production levels under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios.