Demographic Bulletin No. 62. Latin America: Population projections 1970 - 2050

The content of this bulletin has been updated by the Demographic Observatory No.3, available in Links

Presentation

This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of the Demographic Bulletin. The first issue came out in January 1968 and was 20 pages in length. Printed in polygraph, that issue was devoted to estimates of the Latin American countries' population by sex and quinquennial age groups for the period 1950-1980. The Bulletin subsequently underwent considerable changes, in terms of both content and technology. One case in point is the preceding issue, a 350-page publication presenting a compilation of life tables for the 20 countries of the region for the period 1950-2025; these tables are also available in electronic format. This thirty-year milestone for the Bulletin is felt to be an appropriate time to embark on both a restructuring of its print format, and a search for the best way of using electronic media (Internet, diskette) to disseminate information. The cover also reflects the fuller integration of CELADE into the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, of which it has been associated with since 1975.The present issue, like the one that appeared 30 years ago, is devoted to population estimates and projections by sex and age group for the 20 countries of Latin America; in this case however, the period from 1970 up to 2050 is covered. For 1970-1995, estimates are presented for the historical period based, in most cases, on an evaluation of figures obtained from censuses, registers of vital statistics and specialized surveys. The used of 1970 as a starting date also constitutes a departure from previous Bulletins, which information presented for 1950 onward. Starting from 1995, the data are projections based on hypotheses with respect to future changes in fertility, mortality and international migration.

In line with recommendations of the Population Division of the United Nations, four sets of projections were prepared for each country based on different hypotheses concerning future fertility rates: the medium hypothesis, which is considered the most plausible and is also referred to as the 'recommended' hypothesis; the high hypothesis; the low hypothesis; and one according to which the levels observed in 1990-1995 will remain constant. This Bulletin presents only the results for the 'recommended' hypothesis; estimates for the others hypothesis are available from CELADE.In the case of seven countries, the figures presented in this publication differ from those published in Demographic Bulletin No.59 of January 1997. The estimates and projections for Colombia, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Uruguay were revised to reflect the information obtained from new censuses. The data for Brazil, Costa Rica and Haiti were also revised after new information from registers of vital statistics or new specific surveys became available on some of the relevant demographic components.

Table 1a sets out figures for the total population of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the period 1970-2050, while table 1b presents this information in more detail for the calendar years from 1995 to 2005. They are followed by a set of nine comparative tables featuring demographic indicators for the 20 countries of Latin America. The main body of the Bulletin presents separate tables for each of the countries on population by sex and quinquennial age groups, together with demographic indicators.

This issue of the Bulletin also provides definitions of the main common demographic indicators, as well as Explanatory Notes on the sources and references used in formulating the estimates and projections.