Demographic Bulletin No. 64 of July 1999 LATIN AMERICA: ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION 1980 - 2025 EXPLANATORY NOTES
The estimates and projections of total population by sex and age group for each of the 20 Latin American countries for the period 1970-2050 have, in most cases, been prepared in conjunction with national institutions. The urban, rural and economically active population projections, on the other hand, have in nearly all cases been prepared by CELADE, because most of the countries have not yet made their own projections based on the most recent census data. A detailed list of the information sources and a description of the methodology used for each country is given below: ARGENTINA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Estimaciones y proyecciones de población: Total del país, 1950-2050 (versión revisada)" (LC/DEM/R.247), OI series, No. 108, Buenos Aires, National Institute of Statistics and Censuses/Latin American Demographic Centre (INDEC/CELADE), 1995. Most recent sources of information: the 1991 national population and housing census and vital statistics up to 1994. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses " (INDEC) in conjunction with CELADE, and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates by age, sex and area for the year 1980 are as published in Demographic Bulletin No. 49 of January 1992. The rates for 1985 were obtained by interpolation between those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1990-2025. Activity rates for the period 1990-2025 were prepared by INDEC and CELADE and published in "Proyección de la población urbana y rural y de la población económicamente activa. 1990-2025", Buenos Aires, 1995. BOLIVIA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Bolivia: estimaciones y proyecciones de la población, 1950-2050" (LC/DEM/R.199), OI series, No. 92, La Paz, National Institute of Statistics/Latin American Demographic Centre (INE/CELADE), March 1995. Most recent sources of information: the 1992 national population and housing census and the 1994 national demographic and health survey (DHS). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1976 and 1992 national population censuses; - 1988 national population survey. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Rates from the 1976 census were used for 1975, and those for 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1988 survey and 1992 census. Finally, rates for 1980 and 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1975 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the population under 55 years and model 3 for the population over 55 years. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Rates from the 1976 census were used for 1975, and those for 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1988 survey and 1992 census. Finally, rates for 1980 and 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1975 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the population under 45 years and model 3 for the population over 45 years. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Rates from the 1976 census were used for 1975, and those for 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1988 survey and 1992 census. Finally, rates for 1980 and 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1975 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 2 and 3: model 3 for the population under 25 years, model 2 for the population over 55 years. The 1990 rates were held constant for the 25-55 age group. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Rates from the 1976 census were used for 1975, and linear interpolation between the 1975 and 1988 survey obtained those for 1980 and 1985. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1988 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the population under 45 years and model 3 for the population over 45 years In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. Note: The 1992 national population census was not used for estimating activity rates among the rural female population due to inconsistencies with the other sources. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. BRAZIL I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Provisional population estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in March 1998 on the basis of information provided by the Brazilian Geographical and Statistical Institute (IBGE). Most recent sources of information: the 1991 National population census, the 1996 population count, vital statistics up to 1993, the national household surveys (PNAD) for 1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996 and the 1996 national demographic and health survey (DHS). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January of 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1970, 1980 and 1991 national population censuses; - 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990 and 1996, "Pesquisa nacional por amostra de domicilio (PNAD)" Note: The 1991 census information on the female economically active population was not used due to incompatibility with the other sources. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. For 1980, rates from the 1981 and 1982 PNAD were average. Rates for 1990 were similarly obtained from the 1989 and 1990 PNAD. Rates for 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 990 rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 2 for the population under 55 years, and model 1 for the population over 55 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. For 1980, rates from the 1981 and 1982 PNAD were average. Rates for 1990 were similarly obtained from the 1989 and 1990 PNAD. Rates for 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 3 for the population under 45 years, and model 1 for the population over 45 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. For 1980, rates from the 1981 and 1982 PNAD were average. Rates for 1990 were similarly obtained from the 1989 and 1990 PNAD. Rates for 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1for the population under 25 years, and model 3 for the population over 55 years of age. The 1990 rates were held constant for the 25-55 age group. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. For 1980, rates from the 1981 and 1982 PNAD were average. Rates for 1990 were similarly obtained from the 1989 and 1990 PNAD. Rates for 1985 were generated by linear interpolation between those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 3 for the population under 45 years, and model 1 for the population over 45 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2040. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. CHILE I. Estimate and projection. of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Chile: Estimaciones y proyecciones de población por sexo y edad. Total del país: 1950-2050" (LC/DEM/R.), OI series, No. 97, Santiago, Chile, National Institute of Statistics/ Latin American Demographic Centre (INE/CELADE), 1995. Most recent sources of information: the 1992 national population and housing census and vital statistics up to 1996. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1982 and 1992 national population censuses; - National employment survey, 1983 and 1992. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Census figures 1982 and 1992 census was used for 1980 and 1990. Rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between these 1980 and 1990 figures. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Census figures 1982 and 1992 census were used for 1980 and 1990. Rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between these 1980 and 1990 figures. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Rates from the 1982 census and the 1982 and 1992 surveys were used for 1980 and 1990. Linear interpolation between these 1980 and 1990 figures obtained rates for 1985. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1 for the population under 25 years and over 65, and were held constant for those between ages 25 and 65. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Rates from the 1982 census and the 1992 surveys were used for 1980 and 1990. Linear interpolation between these 1980 and 1990 figures obtained rates for 1985. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. Note: 1992 census was not used when estimating rural activity rates due to inconsistencies with the other sources. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. COLOMBIA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by the National Bureau of Statistics (DANE) and the National Planning Department (DNP) in collaboration with CELADE in 1998. Most recent sources of information: the 1993 national population and housing census and the 1995 national demographic and health survey (DHS). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1973, 1985 and 1993 national population censuses; - 1997 national household survey. Note: In estimating the urban and rural female activity rates, data from the 1993 census was not included since its values were too low compared to the 1997 survey and previous projections. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1973, 1985 and 1993 census rates. The rates for 1985, published by decennial group, were estimated for quinquennial groups using the 1973 census distribution. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1973 and 1985 census rates. The rates for 1985, published by decennial group, were estimated for quinquennial groups using the 1973 census distribution. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 census rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1973, 1985 and 1993 census rates. The rates for 1985, published by decennial group, were estimated for quinquennial groups using the 1973 census distribution. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of model 1 for the population under 25 years and over 55, and were held constant for those between ages 25 and 55. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1973 and 1985 census rates. The rates for 1985, published by decennial group, were estimated for quinquennial groups using the 1973 census distribution. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 census rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. COSTA RICA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared in 1991 by the Department of Statistics and Censuses (DGEC) of the Ministry of Planning and Economic Policy and by the Institute of Housing and Urban Development (INUV) in collaboration with CELADE. In December 1995 and March 1998, CELADE made adjustments in consultation with DGEC. Most recent sources of information: vital statistics up to 1992, the 1993 national reproductive health survey and information on arrivals and departures from 1987 to 1996. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1964, 1973 and 1984 national population censuses. - National household, employment and unemployment survey of July 1976, July 1983, November 1983 to March 1984, November 1984 to March 1985, July 1985, July 1986, July 1987, July 1990, July 1991 and July 1994. Note: Date from the surveys was used as control on census information, with this latter being used to estimate activity rates. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1984 census were used for 1985, and those for 1980 were obtain by linear interpolation of 1973 and 1984 census figures. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1984 census were used for 1985, and those for 1980 were obtain by linear interpolation of 1973 and 1984 census figures. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of model 1 for the population under 70 years of age, rates for those over 70 were held constant. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1984 census were used for 1985, and those for 1980 were obtain by linear interpolation of 1973 and 1984 census figures. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of model 3, for the population under 25 years of age and over 55, and were held constant for the groups between 25 and 55. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1984 census were used for 1985, and those for 1980 were obtain by linear interpolation of 1973 and 1984 census figures. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of model 1 for the population under 70 years of age, rates for those over 70 were held constant. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. CUBA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in December 1995. In March 1998, CELADE made adjustments to the projections. Most recent sources of information: vital statistics up to 1995. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No.63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1970 and 1981 national population censuses. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Projection base year 1980. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Period 1985-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 rates and those of model 1, holding those for 15-19 age group constant. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Projection base year 1980. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Period 1985-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 rates and those of model 1, holding them constant for the population over 70 years of age. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates by rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Projection base year 1980. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Period 1985-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 rates and those of model 1, for the population under 25 years and over 55. Rates in the 25-55 age group were held constant. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Projection base year 1980. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Period 1985-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 rates and those of model 1, holding them constant for the population over 70 years of age. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. ECUADOR I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Ecuador: Estimaciones y proyecciones de la población. Período 1950-2010", Quito, National Development Council (CONADE)/ National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC)/ Latin American Demographic Centre (CELADE)/ United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), March 1993. (The extension up to 2050 was prepared by CELADE). In October 1995, CELADE made slight adjustments to the fertility and infant mortality rates from 2020 onwards in order to conform to criteria established by the Population Division of the United Nations. Most recent sources of information: the 1990 national population census and vital statistics up to 1995. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1974, 1982 and 1990 national population censuses III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation with figures from the 1974, 1982 and 1990 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the under 55 population and model 3 for those over 55 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation with figures from the 1974, 1982 and 1990 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of the activity rates by rural area. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation with figures from the 1974, 1982 and 1990 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 2, for the population under 25 and over 55 years old, while 1990 rates were held constant for the 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation with figures from the 1974, 1982 and 1990 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. EL SALVADOR I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by the Department of Statistics and Censuses (DIGESTYC) in collaboration with CELADE in December 1996. Most recent sources of information: the 1992 national population and housing census, vital statistics up to 1993 and the 1993 national family health survey (FESAL). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1971 and 1992 national population censuses. - 1974 Labor Force Survey, and multiple purpose surveys of November 1991 to March 1992, April to September 1992 and October to March 1993. Note: Data from the surveys was used as a control on census information. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1992 census were used for 1970 and 1990. Linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990 figures obtained activity rates for 1980 and 1985. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the population under 55 years of age, and model 3 for those over 55. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for from the 1971 and 1992 census were used for 1970 and 1990. Linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990 figures obtained activity rates for 1980 and 1985. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1992 census were used for 1970 and 1990. Linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990 figures obtained activity rates for 1980 and 1985. Period 1995-2025 These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 2 and 3: model 3 for the population under 25 years of age, and model 2 for those over 55. Rates for 1990 were held constant for the 25- 55 age group. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1992 census were used for 1970 and 1990. Linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990 figures obtained activity rates for 1980 and 1985. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. GUATEMALA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. The population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Guatemala: Estimaciones y proyecciones de población, 1950-2050" (LC/DEM/R.264), OI series, No. 116, Guatemala City, National Institute of Statistics/Latin American Demographic Centre (INE/CELADE), April 1997. Most recent sources of information: the 1994 national population census and vital statistics up to 1993. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepard by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1981 and 1994 national population censuses. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban area areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Activity rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1994 census rates. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1994 census rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Activity rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1994 census rates. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1994 census rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Activity rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1994 census rates. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1994 census rates and those of model 2 for the population under 25 and over 55 years of age: rates were held constant for the 25-55 age groups. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Activity rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1994 census rates. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1994 census rates and those of model 1, holding constant of the 70-74 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. HAITI I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared in 1991 by the Haitian Institute of Statistics and Information Sciences (IHSI) in collaboration with CELADE. In December 1995 and March 1998, CELADE made adjustments to the projections. Most recent source of information: the 1994-1995 survey on mortality, morbidity and use of services (EMMUS-II). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used - 1971 and 1982 national population censuses (advance samples). III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1. Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1982 censuses were used for 1970 and 1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1970 and 1985. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 1 for the population under 55 years of age, and model 2 for the population over 55. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1982 censuses were used for 1970 and 1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1970 and 1985. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 1 for the population under 45 years of age, and model 2 for the population over 45. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates by rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1982 censuses were used for 1970 and 1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1970 and 1985. Period 1990-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 1 for the population under 25 years of age, and model 2 for those over 55. Rates were held constant for the population in the 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1985. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1982 censuses were used for 1970 and 1985. Activity rates for 1980 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1970 and 1985. Period 1985-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1985 rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. HONDURAS I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in 1992. Most recent sources of information: the 1988 national population census, the 1991-1992 national demographic survey and the 1996 national survey on epidemiology and family health. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1974 and 1988 national population censuses - Permanent multiple purpose household survey of June 1988, September 1989, September 1990, May 1991 and October 1992. Note: Data from household surveys was not used as their definition of the economically active population differs that of the census. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1988 census were used for 1990. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1974 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1988 census were used for 1990. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1974 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimates and projections of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1988 census were used for 1990. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1974 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 2, for the population under 25 years and over 55 years of age. The 1990 rates were held constant for 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1988 census were used for 1990. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between those of 1974 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. MEXICO I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Preliminary population estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in collaboration with the National Population Council (CONAPO) in June 1994. In November 1995, CELADE made slight adjustments to the fertility rates from 2020 onward to bring them into line with criteria established by the Population Division of the United Nations. Most recent sources of information: the 1990 general population census, the 1995 population count and the 1995 national family planning survey. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1970, 1980 and 1990 population censuses; - National survey on demographic dynamics, 1992 (ENADID-92). Note: The 1980 census activity rates were not used for lack of coherence with the other sources. Based on the 1992 survey, information from the censuses of 1970 and 1990 was adjusted. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 2 for the population under 55 years and model 1 for those over 55 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030 b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of models 2 and 3: model 2 for the population under 25 and model 3 for those over 55 years of age. The 1990 rates were constant for the 25-55 age group. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. NICARAGUA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Provisional population estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE in collaboration with the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) in March 1998. Most recent sources of information: the 1995 national population census, vital statistics up to 1992 and the 1993 national family health survey. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1971 and 1995 national population censuses; - Demographic surveys of 1985 and 1993; - 1998 level of living survey. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1971, 1985 and 1995. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 census rates and those of model 3. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. The 1995 census activity rates were adjusted on the basis of the 1993 and 1998 surveys. Those for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1971, 1985 and 1995. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1971, 1985 and 1995. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 census rates and those of model 3. The 1995 rates were constant for the 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b.Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. The 1995 census activity rates were adjusted on the basis of the 1993 and 1998 surveys. Those for 1980 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1971, 1985 and 1995. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. PANAMA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by the Statistics and Census Office and published in "Panamá: Proyección de la población total del país por sexo, según grupos de edad: años 1990-2025", Estadística Panameña, Boletín Especial, Panama City, Statistics and Census Office, April 1993. CELADE adopted them in 1993 and extended the series up to 2050. In September 1995, CELADE made slight adjustments to the fertility rates from 2015 onward to bring them into line with criteria established by the Population Division of the United Nations. Most recent sources of information: the 1990 national population census and vital statistics up to 1993. The Canal Zone was included in the projections for Panama as from 1980. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1980 and 1990 national population censuses. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1, maintaining constant those under 20 years of age. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1, maintaining constant those under 15 years of age. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. The 1990 rates were constant for the 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation from those of 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. PARAGUAY I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared in collaboration with CELADE and correspond to those published in "Paraguay: Estimación y proyección de la población total, según sexo y grupos de edad, período 1950-2050", Department of Statistics, Surveys and Censuses (DGEC)/ United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), December 1994. In April 1995, CELADE made slight adjustments to the fertility rates from 2025 onward to bring them into line with criteria established by the Population Division of the United Nations. Most recent sources of information: the 1992 national population census and the 1990 national demographic and health survey. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. Estimates and projections were prepared by "Secretaría Técnica de Planificación, 1995, in collaboration with CELADE. PERU I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in "Proyecciones de la población del Perú; 1995-2025" (LC/DEM/R.229), OI series, No. 102, National Institute of Statistics and Information Sciences (INEI)/ United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)/ Latin American Demographic Centre (CELADE), April 1995. The extension up to 2050 was prepared by CELADE. Most recent sources of information: the 1993 national population census, vital statistics up to 1992 and the 1991-1992 demographic and family health survey (DHS). II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI) and CELADE, published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. Estimates and projections were prepared by "Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informmática (INEI) and CELADE, published in. "Perú: Estimaciones y proyecciones de la población económicamente activa. 1970-2015", Lima, November 1995. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by the National Statistical Office (ONE) in collaboration with CELADE. In 1997 CELADE made slight adjustments to the fertility and infant mortality rates from 2020 onward to bring them into line with criteria established by the Population Division of the United Nations. Most recent source of information: the 1996 demographic and health survey (DHS). Information from the 1993 national population census was not available. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1981 and 1993 national population censuses. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 figures and those of the 1993 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 figures and those of the 1993 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of models 1 and 3: model 1 for the population under 45 and model 3 for the population over 45 years of age. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 figures and those of the 1993 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of models 1 and 2: model 1 for the population under 25 and model 2 for the population over 55 years of age. The 1990 rates were held constant for 25-55 age group. In all cases, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1981 census were used for 1980. Rates for 1985 and 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 figures and those of the 1993 census. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1993 census rates and those of model 3. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. URUGUAY I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections correspond to those published in: "Estimaciones y proyecciones de población por sexo y edad. Total del país: 1950-2050" (LD/DEM/R.287), OI series, No. 128, Montevideo, National Institute of Statistics / Latin American Demographic Centre - Population Division (INE/CELADE), 1998. Most recent sources of information: the 1996 national population census and vital statistics up to 1996. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by "Instituto Nacional de Estadística" (INE) and CELADE, published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1. Information sources used. - 1975, 1985 and 1996 national population censuses. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates from the 1996 census were used for 1995. Linear interpolation between the 1975, 1985 census and 1995 rates obtained rates for 1980 and 1990. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates from the 1996 census were used for 1995. Linear interpolation between the 1975, 1985 census and 1995 rates obtained rates for 1980 and 1990. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates from the 1996 census were used for 1995. Linear interpolation between the 1975, 1985 census and 1995 rates obtained rates for 1980 and 1990. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 1. The 1995 rates were held constant for 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1995. Activity rates from the 1996 census were used for 1995. Linear interpolation between the 1975, 1985 census and 1995 rates obtained rates for 1980 and 1990. Period 2000-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1995 rates and those of model 2. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. VENEZUELA I. Estimates and projections of the total population. Population estimates and projections were prepared by the Central Office of Statistics and Information Sciences (OCEI) in collaboration with CELADE in November 1993. Most recent sources of information: the 1990 national population census and vital statistics up to 1994. II. Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population. Estimates and projections were prepared by CELADE and published in Demographic Bulletin No. 63 of January 1999. III. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. III.1 Information sources used. - 1971, 1981, and 1991 national population census; - 1987 household survey (second semester) Notes: Data from the 1981 and 1991 censuses were not used for the urban and rural male population due to inconsistencies with the other sources. The 1997 survey was used to correct the male urban and rural activity rates of the 1991 census. III.2. Methodology for estimating and projecting activity rates by urban and rural residence. III.2.1 Estimates and projections of activity rates in urban areas. a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1991 census were used for 1970 and 1990, adjusted in line with observed figures in the 1987 household survey. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1991 census were used for 1980 and 1990. Rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. III.2.2. Estimate and projection of activity rates in rural areas a. Male activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990 Activity rates from the 1971 and 1991 census were used for 1970 and 1990 adjusted in line with observed figures in the 1987 household survey. Rates for 1980 and 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1970 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. The 1990 rates were held constant for 25-55 age group. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2030. b. Female activity rates by age group. Period 1980-1990. Activity rates from the 1971 and 1991 census were used for 1980 and 1990. Rates for 1985 were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1980 and 1990. Period 1995-2025. These figures were obtained by linear interpolation between the 1990 rates and those of model 1. In this case, the model rates were assigned in the year 2060. III.3. Estimates and projections of the economically active population. The estimated projected activity rates by sex, age group and residence were applied to the corresponding population groups to obtain the economically active population in each group. The male, female and total economically population figures were obtained by addition. Centro
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