Demographic Bulletin 63

Demographic Bulletin of January 1999

LATIN AMERICA: PROJECTION
OF URBAN - RURAL POPULATION

1970 - 2025

INTRODUCTION

The present publication updates the information presented in issue No. 56 of the Demographic Bulletin (July 1995) based on revised projections for many countries and recent urban and rural population data from the 1990s census round.

The projections published here for the urban and rural populations, by sex and five-year age group, for 1970-2025 were processed by CELADE, except in the cases of Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru and Uruguay, for which the projections were prepared by national institutions with the assistance of CELADE - Population Division.

In the preparation of these projections, information from the latest censuses was compared with projections computed on the basis of previous censuses using the method proposed in "Metodología de las proyecciones de población urbana-rural y de población económicamente activa elaboradas en CELADE", Pujol, J. M. and J. Chackiel, in Métodos para proyecciones demográficas (CELADE, 1984). The comparison demonstrated these projections corresponded quite closely to the census results.

Consequently, the method used by CELADE on previous occasions, which is based on percentage breakdowns of the total urban population by sex and age group calculated using population census data, was employed for this issue of the Bulletin as well. This methodology projects the percentages of the total urban population by sex using a logistic curve with four parameters: two "observed" values (corresponding to the last two censuses in most cases), and a lower and upper asymptote. The procedure also assumes that the percentage breakdown of the urban population by age follows a logistic pattern similar to that of the total. Then, in order to obtain the corresponding population values, these percentages are applied to the population breakdowns by sex and age obtained from the national projections in use in the countries (Demographic Bulletin, No. 62).

In tables A and B, the lower and upper asymptotes of the logistic curves used for the countries are presented according to level of urbanization. The censuses for the 1980s and 1990s were taken as pivots. Census data from the 1970s round were used as logistic parameters in some cases, while in others, estimates for the year 2000 were employed.

The explanatory notes included in this issue of the Bulletin cover all the basic inputs used by CELADE in computing its projections: national censuses, total population projections, and the methods used to project urbanization levels (urban percentages, by sex) and the structure of the population (urban percentages, by sex and age). The urban and rural population projections prepared by national institutions in Argentina and Ecuador were also based on a logistic procedure.

One of the problems in analysing urban and rural population trends and in making cross-country comparisons is the use of different definitions of "urban" and "rural". In order to provide more detailed information about this aspect, the appendix details the criteria used in each country since the 1960 census round.

As is customary, table 1a shows the total population of 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2050. Table 1b shows the population of these same countries, by calendar year, for the period 1995-2005. Tables 2 through 10 give selected demographic indicators for these countries, such as growth rates, total fertility rates and crude birth and mortality rates. Tables 11 and 12 present indicators for the urban and rural populations.

Following these, tables 13 to 33 contain Latin American countries’ urban and rural population projections.

Table A

LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS APERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY

MALES

Country	Asymptotes		Pivot 1		Pivot 2
	Lower	Upper	Year	Value	Year	Value
Argentina^a	33	94	1980	82.0	1991	86.0
Chile	33	94	1982	78.2	1992	81.9
Uruguay^a,b
Venezuela	33	94	1981	78.4	1990	82.9

Brazil	26	88	1980	66.3	1996	77.1
Colombia	26	88	1985	64.8	1993	69.6
Cuba	26	88	1970	58.6	1981	67.4
Mexico	26	88	1980	65.3	1995	72.9
Peru^a,b

Bolivia	20	78	1976	41.1	1992	56.6
Costa Rica	20	78	1973	38.4	1984	42.6
Ecuador^a	20	78	1990	54.1	2000	61.5
El Salvador	20	78	1971	37.7	1992	49.2
Guatemala	20	78	1980	35.9	2000	38.1
Honduras	20	78	1974	30.0	1988	37.6
Nicaragua	20	78	1971	45.0	1995	52.4
Panama	20	78	1980	47.4	1990	51.5
Paraguay	20	78	1982	41.1	1992	48.3
Dominican Republic	20	78	1970	37.6	1993	54.5

Haiti	10	60	1971	17.9	1982	23.6

a Projection prepared by a national institution with assistance from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).
^b Projection computed on the basis of components method.

Table B

LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY

FEMALES

Country	Asymptotes		Pivot 1		Pivot 2
	Lower	Upper	Year	Value	Year	Value
Argentina^a	35	95	1980	84.0	1991	88.0
Chile	35	95	1982	82.0	1992	85.0
Uruguay^a,b
Venezuela	35	95	1981	81.1	1990	85.3

Brazil	28	90	1980	68.8	1996	79.6
Colombia	28	90	1985	68.8	1993	73.2
Cuba	28	90	1970	62.1	1981	70.7
Mexico	28	90	1980	67.3	1995	74.1
Peru^a,b

Bolivia	22	80	1976	42.4	1992	58.5
Costa Rica	22	80	1973	42.8	1984	46.4
Ecuador^a	22	80	1990	56.6	2000	63.9
El Salvador	22	80	1971	41.4	1992	52.2
Guatemala	22	80	1980	38.5	2000	40.7
Honduras	22	80	1974	32.7	1988	41.2
Nicaragua	22	80	1971	50.3	1995	56.1
Panama	22	80	1980	52.1	1990	56.0
Paraguay	22	80	1982	44.4	1992	52.4
Dominican Republic	22	80	1970	41.9	1993	57.7

Haiti	13	70	1971	22.6	1982	27.8

^{a Projection prepared by a national institution with
assistance from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).

^b Projection computed on the basis of components method.

Centro
Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía (CELADE / CEPAL)

Casilla 179-D, Santiago Chile

Fax: (56-2) 208 0196 Tel: (56-2) 210 2005

email: gbay@eclac.cl

Última actualización: octubre, 2000}