Demographic Bulletin of January 1999

LATIN AMERICA: PROJECTION
OF URBAN - RURAL POPULATION

1970 - 2025

INTRODUCTION

The present publication updates the information presented in issue No. 56 of the Demographic Bulletin (July 1995) based on revised projections for many countries and recent urban and rural population data from the 1990s census round.

The projections published here for the urban and rural populations, by sex and five-year age group, for 1970-2025 were processed by CELADE, except in the cases of Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru and Uruguay, for which the projections were prepared by national institutions with the assistance of CELADE - Population Division.

In the preparation of these projections, information from the latest censuses was compared with projections computed on the basis of previous censuses using the method proposed in "Metodología de las proyecciones de población urbana-rural y de población económicamente activa elaboradas en CELADE", Pujol, J. M. and J. Chackiel, in Métodos para proyecciones demográficas (CELADE, 1984). The comparison demonstrated these projections corresponded quite closely to the census results.

Consequently, the method used by CELADE on previous occasions, which is based on percentage breakdowns of the total urban population by sex and age group calculated using population census data, was employed for this issue of the Bulletin as well. This methodology projects the percentages of the total urban population by sex using a logistic curve with four parameters: two "observed" values (corresponding to the last two censuses in most cases), and a lower and upper asymptote. The procedure also assumes that the percentage breakdown of the urban population by age follows a logistic pattern similar to that of the total. Then, in order to obtain the corresponding population values, these percentages are applied to the population breakdowns by sex and age obtained from the national projections in use in the countries (Demographic Bulletin, No. 62).

In tables A and B, the lower and upper asymptotes of the logistic curves used for the countries are presented according to level of urbanization. The censuses for the 1980s and 1990s were taken as pivots. Census data from the 1970s round were used as logistic parameters in some cases, while in others, estimates for the year 2000 were employed.

The explanatory notes included in this issue of the Bulletin cover all the basic inputs used by CELADE in computing its projections: national censuses, total population projections, and the methods used to project urbanization levels (urban percentages, by sex) and the structure of the population (urban percentages, by sex and age). The urban and rural population projections prepared by national institutions in Argentina and Ecuador were also based on a logistic procedure.

One of the problems in analysing urban and rural population trends and in making cross-country comparisons is the use of different definitions of "urban" and "rural". In order to provide more detailed information about this aspect, the appendix details the criteria used in each country since the 1960 census round.

As is customary, table 1a shows the total population of 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1970 and 2050. Table 1b shows the population of these same countries, by calendar year, for the period 1995-2005. Tables 2 through 10 give selected demographic indicators for these countries, such as growth rates, total fertility rates and crude birth and mortality rates. Tables 11 and 12 present indicators for the urban and rural populations.

Following these, tables 13 to 33 contain Latin American countries’ urban and rural population projections.


Table A

LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS APERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY

 

MALES

 

Country

Asymptotes

Pivot 1

Pivot 2

 

Lower

Upper

Year

Value

Year

Value

Argentinaa

33

94

1980

82.0

1991

86.0

Chile

33

94

1982

78.2

1992

81.9

Uruguaya,b

           

Venezuela

33

94

1981

78.4

1990

82.9

             

Brazil

26

88

1980

66.3

1996

77.1

Colombia

26

88

1985

64.8

1993

69.6

Cuba

26

88

1970

58.6

1981

67.4

Mexico

26

88

1980

65.3

1995

72.9

Perua,b

           
             

Bolivia

20

78

1976

41.1

1992

56.6

Costa Rica

20

78

1973

38.4

1984

42.6

Ecuadora

20

78

1990

54.1

2000

61.5

El Salvador

20

78

1971

37.7

1992

49.2

Guatemala

20

78

1980

35.9

2000

38.1

Honduras

20

78

1974

30.0

1988

37.6

Nicaragua

20

78

1971

45.0

1995

52.4

Panama

20

78

1980

47.4

1990

51.5

Paraguay

20

78

1982

41.1

1992

48.3

Dominican Republic

20

78

1970

37.6

1993

54.5

             

Haiti

10

60

1971

17.9

1982

23.6

 

a Projection prepared by a national institution with assistance from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).
b Projection computed on the basis of components method.


Table B

LATIN AMERICA: ASYMPTOTES AND PIVOTS USED IN THE PROJECTION OF THE URBAN POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE, BY COUNTRY

FEMALES

Country

Asymptotes

Pivot 1

Pivot 2

 

Lower

Upper

Year

Value

Year

Value

Argentinaa

35

95

1980

84.0

1991

88.0

Chile

35

95

1982

82.0

1992

85.0

Uruguaya,b

           

Venezuela

35

95

1981

81.1

1990

85.3

             

Brazil

28

90

1980

68.8

1996

79.6

Colombia

28

90

1985

68.8

1993

73.2

Cuba

28

90

1970

62.1

1981

70.7

Mexico

28

90

1980

67.3

1995

74.1

Perua,b

           
             

Bolivia

22

80

1976

42.4

1992

58.5

Costa Rica

22

80

1973

42.8

1984

46.4

Ecuadora

22

80

1990

56.6

2000

63.9

El Salvador

22

80

1971

41.4

1992

52.2

Guatemala

22

80

1980

38.5

2000

40.7

Honduras

22

80

1974

32.7

1988

41.2

Nicaragua

22

80

1971

50.3

1995

56.1

Panama

22

80

1980

52.1

1990

56.0

Paraguay

22

80

1982

44.4

1992

52.4

Dominican Republic

22

80

1970

41.9

1993

57.7

             

Haiti

13

70

1971

22.6

1982

27.8

a Projection prepared by a national institution with assistance from CELADE (see exploratory Notes).
b Projection computed on the basis of components method.


Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía (CELADE / CEPAL)
Casilla 179-D, Santiago Chile
Fax: (56-2) 208 0196  Tel: (56-2) 210 2005
email: gbay@eclac.cl
Última actualización: octubre, 2000